Portfolio as at 29 Mar 2013

Portfolio as at 22 Mar 2013

Portfolio as at 15 Mar 2013

Portfolio as at 08 Mar 2013

Portfolio as at 01 Mar 2013

Portfolio as at 22 Feb 2013

Portfolio as at 15 Feb 2013

Portfolio as at 08 Feb 2013

Portfolio as at 31 Jan 2013

Portfolio as at 25 Jan 2013

Portfolio as at 18 Jan 2013

Portfolio as at 11 Jan 2013

Portfolio as at 04 Jan 2013

Portfolio as at 01 Jan 2013

New Year New Start, Bring Over Portfolio Calculation as Initial Portfolio from end of last year.

PE + Bench Marking + Appraisal

转载自http://2ndbrother2.blogspot.com/2010_01_01_archive.html


这篇可能是我今年的重要发表之一，送红包。

每一个有买股票的人都常听到什么是PE。关于 PE，有些人认为它很好用，有些人却认为它不行不准。那到底是谁是谁非呢？

在股票论坛和看了别人的部落阁不短的时间，但却不曾看过有人真正把 PE 解释的或如何利用它说个明白。其实 PE 本身并没有问题，问题是在用的人。人通常都是一样的，赚钱的就说它好用，亏钱的就说它没有用。PE 就好象是你做 modeling 一样，都是 model to ideal situation （假设完美的前提下）。

那么完美的前提又是什么东东呢？
1. 假设公司没有债务
2. 假设公司的盈利都是有素质的 （quality of profit）
3. 假设公司的管理层都是能干的 （competent management）
4. 假设公司把盈利再投资或归还给股东
5. 假设公司的盈利就是 cash flow （profit = cash flow）
6. 等等....

看了以上，你还会认为每一间公司的 PE 是＂应该＂一样的吗？？

我曾经说过，要用 PE 你一定要 bench marking，比方说一流的公司 PE ＂应该＂是 14－16，二流的是 10－13，三流的 8－9，如此类推。单单是 PE 还不够，可以加上 bench marking 就不错，如果再加 appraisal 会更好。

为什么说要再加 appraisal 呢？ 你必须了解股票市场都会 appraise 高成长 和 给高股息 的股票比较高的 PE （16－22）。如果你买的公司 已经 trade 在 PE 20 了，不过它还可以继续高成长，那你根本不应该卖。如果高成长的公司 trade 在 PE 16 以下，那是不是应该买呢？？ 几年钱 VADS 已 trade 在 PE 16 了，了解这间公司后我还是照买，两年后上了100％。

简单来说是 PE + Bench Marking + Appraisal

陈在德老师分享会

今晚去了陈在德老师在Sri Petalling Hotel的分享会。第一次了解了陈老师到底是一个怎么样的人。

过程中老师灌输了很多的知识：

1. 人之所以不改变是因为痛苦不够大。
2.人在那里，心就在哪里，灵就在哪里。
3.过去等于杂念，未来等于妄想。
4.有读比没有读好，有上课比没有上课好。
5.人生的方向，人生的使命，人生的舞台。
6.Mission come first, Commission come second。
7.要成功，先发疯，头脑简单往前冲。
8.销售就是讲故事。
9.买产品不如买自己。
10.遭遇是最棒的老师。
11.面对问题，解决问题，驳逮几。
12.第一步是了解自己、自我分析。
13.不是每一个行业赚的钱一样多。
14.朋友会跟朋友买。
15.做一样的事情，期待不一样的结果=神经病=轮回
16.我一定要改变。
17.销售是无限的收入。
18.成功者看价值，失败者看价钱。
19.顾客嫌贵，就是你创造产品的价值不够。
20.我要、我要、我一定要！
21.Why Not Me? 为什么不是我？
22.外在所看到的世界都是你心灵世界的投射。
23.自作自受
24.Everything is Marketing
25.人有善愿，天必宠之。
26.舍我取谁
27.对的销售会让你倍增能量。
28.销售是过滤不是说服。
29.倾听=80%，说服=20%
30.销售是用问的，ask, not explaination
31.我可以销售任何产品、任何时间、任何地点。
32.催眠式销售，引导顾客只说YES!

买coastal的情绪波动

我在买进Coastal的时候是以图标技术分析为我的切入点的。
买入的日期是股票价量齐升的14/11/2011及15/11/2011。
买入的平均价为RM1.95。
技术指标中都在转好除了Moving Average的指标罢了。
可是欧洲的债务危机又威胁时股价下跌。

Positive Technical Signal

There are 5 technical signals need to be use together to form a positive buying signal:

1. 20 days and 50 days simple moving average (MV-20d & MV-50d)

• Share price trading at price above the MV line
• Share price across above the MV line
• MV-20d cut through the MV-50d from below

2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• When the signal line at above the "point 0", this is a buying signal, indicates that share price will be raising; When the signal line is at below the "point 0 ", this is a selling signal which indicates that share price will be falling down.
• When the blue line cross above the red line, this is a buying signal; When the red line cross above the blue line, this is a selling signal.

3. Slow Stochastic Oscillator

• When blue line move above "point 50", this is a buying signal. This will be accurate especially the line move from "point 20" towards "point 80"; When the blue line move below “point 50", that is a selling signal. 
• When the blue line move above the red line, this is a buying signal indicates share price will be raising; When the red line move above the blue line, this is a selling signal, indicates share price will be falling. 

4. RSI Reverse ( Relative Strength Index Reversal Index)

• When Share price is at  above the RSI line, it is a buying signal.

5. Parabolic SAR ( Stop and Reversal )

• When the share price is at above the Parabolic SAR, this is a buying signal; When the share price is at below the SAR, this is a selling signal.

Remarks:

This is for the use to find a momentum share.

When the share price raise above the strengthening zone and the volume is increasing significantly. 

Momentum Investment

Objective: Gain for 20% to 300% in 3 to 6 months period

There are 7 steps to choose a momentum share:
1. Choose a sector or industry in the cycle
2. Continue have a stable income growth and estimated from analysis
3. Positive shareholding by insider or institution
4. Stable revenue growth and high ROE
5. High Market Sentiment
6. Share price near by or at the point of buying
7. Positive Technical Analysis

Value Based Investment

Objective: Target return of 15% to 25% in a year

There are 9 criteria of Value Based Investment:

1. Historical revenue, profit and cash flow consistently increase
2. Stable competitive advantages
3. Future growth incentive
4. Moderate debt level
5. Above average ROE
6. Low operating expenses level in maintaining daily operation
7. Management holding or buying company's share
8. Share price below the real value
9. Share price in a strengthening stage or uptrend stage